In Reply to: risk and reward posted by barrya on March 29, 2024 at 10:32:44
Great post. Let me address a couple of things. I don’t know the answer collegiately, but there are expected points for almost every shot in hoops (see below). If you are going cold from 3, you can just as easily go cold from midrange too, the conclusion, analytically is it’s a superior risk to go cold from 3 than 2. There are also 2 mitigating factors overall (1) rebounds off 3 point shots tend to bounce farther thereby allowing a better chance for a second chance and (2) the real key is the 3 game requires better spacing. If you get better spacing the inside game more potent. In terms of (1) it’s why you see so many fast breaks that result in the guy with the ball pulling up for a 3. It drives me CRAZY.
The first coach I saw begin to develop this game was Pitino with UK. Alawsys ahead of his time.
My problem with this version of the game is it’s less aesthetically appealing. Especially, the pull up 3 in transition.