This may help you sleep a little easier at night.

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Posted by mh on February 04, 2026 at 14:08:42

In Reply to: The Math Likely Worse Than Many Here Thought. posted by NYBruin on February 04, 2026 at 13:25:05

Team Rankings runs thousands of simulation every day to project how things will shake out by the end of the regular season.

Based on those simulations, they project UCLA has an 87% chance of making the tournament. USC has a 49% chance.

OTOH, I have no idea how accurate their projections are.

KenPom projects we finish the season 19-12 (11-9) and SC finishes the season 21-10 (10-10). SC may have a better overall record, but their OOC SOS is #236, while ours is #122.

Follow Ups:

Sorry Old Schools UCLA91 01:20:29 02/05/26 (0)
Didn't Work. NYBruin 14:28:50 02/04/26 (6)
- I doubt this will help you, but ESPN's bubble guy weighs in. mh 16:14:53 02/04/26 (1)
  - Your Speculation Is Correct. NYBruin 16:48:32 02/04/26 (0)
- Pomeroy also has our rivals going 3-5 in their last 8 games... Born2BBruin 14:58:42 02/04/26 (3)
  - Check Your Math Brother B2B. 4-4 vs Our 3-5..* NYBruin 15:35:10 02/04/26 (2)
    - Checked and double checked. They beat Penn State, Oregon... Born2BBruin 19:07:31 02/04/26 (1)
      - You Are 1 Of 2 PrimeTime Adherents Of Pom Pom, And I Am Not. NYBruin 20:26:22 02/04/26 (0)

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