Robet Pape is on Diary of a CEO. He's a Political Science professor who has advised POTUS since 2001, including Trump, until 2024 on Iran. In Trumps first term he was one of the loud voices who convinced Trump NOT to attack Iran.
He says odds are 70% now we do a ground assault. Trump announced the MOU and then immediately violated it, telling people to go the southern route in the Strait and avoid Iran, and saying he was giving Iran money but they had to spend it on US agriculture. Iran immediately said no deal and started shooting at ships in the strait. Trump had been under the impression only he could restart the war, he was completely caught off guard and then the Houthis joined in.
So now we're weeks away from a world economic crisis because of the global oil supply.
So Trump has 2 choices, give in and let Iran control the strait, which his ego won't allow, or bomb the crap out of Iran. He thinks Trump actually wants to drop a bomb on them but people around him won't do that so he'll settle on a ground assault. Either way would be a mass casualty event.