In Reply to: What is Netanyahu hoping to get out of war against Iran? posted by DSCBruin on April 23, 2024 at 16:30:15
A nuclear armed Iraq would be a mortal threat to Israel. In many ways, Iraq currently operates as a rogue state, using proxies such as Hamas to wage war against Iraq's perceived enemies. As a rogue state operating outside of international norms, if Iraq developed a nuclear weapon, there is a very real possibility that they would use it to destroy Israel.
The Obama administration negotiated a path to prevent Iraq from developing a nuclear weapon, while attempting a long-term strategy to bring Iraq into the international community. That strategy had a decent chance of succeeding - a very large proportion of the Iraqi population is very young, and those younger people are likely to embrace the west and our values. Over time, the ayatollahs that currently run Iraq would probably be replaced by younger, more reasonable leaders.
But Trump blew up the Obama program. We now see Iraq moving closer and closer to having nuclear weapons. I suspect (but cannot confirm) that most Israelis would support a pre-emptive strike to prevent Iraq from developing a nuclear capability.
Of course, if Israel attacks Iraq, it would need assistance from the US. I suspect that despite Trump's "America First" mentality, he is far more likely to support an Israeli pre-emptive attack on Iraq than is Biden. On the other hand, Iraq now enjoys close ties to Russia, and Trump shows absolutely no inclination to cross Putin. It's possible that Netanyahu has mis-judged Trump - if Vladimir Putin told Donald Trump "No, don't do it," I believe Trump would abandon Israel in the blink of an eye.