Republicans Have a MAGA Problem in the Country’s Most Competitive Districts
As primary season begins in earnest, Republicans face a Catch-22: Their own voters prefer MAGA candidates over more traditional Republicans, but the MAGA brand is a drag in a competitive general election environment.
That’s a key finding from The Cook Political Report’s Battleground District Project, which surveyed the 36 Toss Up and Lean districts most likely to determine control of the United States House.
The project’s poll, conducted April 7-14 by GS Strategy Group and New River Strategies, found that, among self-identified Republicans and independents who typically support the GOP, a 60% majority favored a MAGA-aligned candidate over a “more mainstream Republican candidate.”
But the same poll found that a MAGA candidate would be the weakest option in the general election in the competitive districts where the survey was conducted.
In a hypothetical matchup, a “moderate Democrat” defeated a “MAGA Republican” by a 14 point margin, 57% to 43%. That includes 73% of independents showing a preference for the moderate Democrat in a head-to-head contest.