In Reply to: Polls are about ''today''. Betting is about ''then''. posted by BluBlood on March 18, 2026 at 08:58:18
That's not what the science says. I believe the research behind it is that the Polymarkets do not have the lag in the pulse of where the election that polls do.
The difference is that do you believe the average opinion of people who are invested in the result or don't have an investment in the result.
If you think about a person that answers a text link to fill out a political survey and actually answers it vs a person who is betting on it, whose opinion do you believe more on average?
It's why the SP500 beats 90% of mutual funds. The average off a larger number investors are going to have overall better data than any one expert.