Putin has been claiming for over a month that Russian forces captured Kupiansk. In reality, Kupiansk remains strategically vital because it is the primary city and gateway across the Oskil River. If Ukraine were to lose it, Russia would gain a critical bridgehead for massing supplies, troops, and armored vehicles. At present, any Russian units operating west of the Oskil are largely limited to infantry, as they do not control a major city to support logistics.
Yesterday, Ukrainian forces completed the encirclement of approximately 200–300 Russian troops trapped inside the city.
In a pointed symbolic move, President Zelenskiy took a selfie at the city entrance, less than half a mile from the front line—an unmistakable rebuke to Putin’s claims.
Russian forces initially infiltrated Kupiansk by constructing a makeshift narrow-gauge rail system inside underground gas pipelines. Troops were transported continuously on carts over two to three days, allowing them to accumulate forces undetected and emerge in the city center. This marked the second successful use of this tactic by Russian forces.
Meanwhile, Russia’s energy sector is under growing pressure. Of its roughly 500 oil tankers, about six have been sunk in the past two weeks, and an additional 13 have been taken offline by non-Russian shipping companies. Ukrainian drone boats have effectively closed the Black Sea to Russian oil shipping, leaving Russia with only two remaining ports capable of handling exports.
Previously, Ukraine focused on striking Russian oil and gas refineries. Now, Ukrainian special forces have expanded operations to target oil and gas platforms in the Caspian Sea—approximately 700 kilometers from Ukraine’s border—dramatically increasing the territory Russia must defend.
At the same time, signs of strain are emerging within Russian military operations. Accidents are becoming more frequent, including incidents in which two pilots were reportedly killed when their aircraft ejection systems activated inside a hangar. Helicopters and fighter jets are increasingly crashing due to maintenance failures, suggesting systemic degradation.
On the ground, Pokrovsk has largely fallen, with its sister city, Myrnohrad, now the focal point of Russian attacks. Once these cities are taken, the terrain beyond becomes largely flat. This favors Ukrainian drone operations but complicates the construction and manning of defensive fortifications.
Ukraine continues to rotate new units into Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad, resulting in frequent destruction of Russian convoys. Both sides appear to believe that committing forces to this battle is advantageous, despite its heavy cost. Russian casualties have reportedly risen from around 1,000 per day to more than 1,400 this week. While Russian forces outnumber Ukrainian defenders in the area by as much as 20 to 1, they continue to suffer regular losses, with convoys of up to 100 troops reportedly destroyed on a near-daily basis.
It remains unclear which side will ultimately benefit from this attritional fight.