In Reply to: Re: Would you believe 54% chance of making the playoffs? posted by TJJ on October 11, 2026 at 10:50:41
to make the CFP playoff.
Right now, the Bruins are the best story of the season, but at the same time, it's obvious Oregon isn't who anyone thought they were; and the rest of the schedule is pedestrian at best.
If UCLA loses, all of the pundits will move on to the next darling; after saying that eventually, Cinderella had to go home from the ball.
These are the 10 win teams that have made the CFP playoffs:
2024
Ohio State: beat #3 Penn State and #5 Indiana.
Tennesse: beat #7 Alabama, #15 Oklahoma, and #24 NC State.
Clemson: beat #8 SMU in the ACC championship, and likely only got in by virtue of that championship.
2025
Oklahoma: beat #4 Alabama, #14 Tennessee, #15 Michigan, #22 Auburn, and #22 Missouri.
Alabama: beat #5 Georgia (lost in SEC championship rematch), #11 Tennessee, #14 Missouri, and #16 Vanderbilt.
Miami: beat #6 Notre Dame, #18 Florida State, and #18 South Florida.
All of the prior 10-win CFP teams had much better resumes than a 10-win UCLA team would have this year (OK, Clemson's resume wasn't much better, but it was better).
It's possible (probable?) an 11-1 UCLA makes the CFP, but if the Bruins lose to Wisconsin, the Badgers have as good a chance as the Bruins of running the table to B1G championship, if not better, and being the 3rd B1G representative in the CFP.