In Reply to: I am not a pessimist. I try to be a realist. posted by BluBlood on May 15, 2026 at 20:57:37
Good luck recruiting off of 5-7. First off, why is last year even a baseline for this year? We will have about 15 starters who weren't even on the team last year. A lot of the depth will come from new players as well.
7 homes games vs 6 last year.
No Indiana or Ohio St., unlike last year.
New coaching, new schemes, new culture. All presumably improvements over last year.
5-7 is such a pathetically low expectation. Right now, UCLA has the newness of the staff to sell, their energy, and their past accomplishments. Go 5-7 and you can turn out the lights, the party's over on all that. Try convincing recruits and donors coming off the same record Foster had his first year.
That doesn't mean Chesney should be fired, but his odds of succeeding here take a nosedive off a season like that. This idea that you can crawl your way up over the long haul is a specious fantasy.
Forget about wins and losses for a second. Cignetti made huge gains in year 1. Gains in culture, fundamentals, standards. Mike Elko at Duke made obvious gains in year 1. Kalen Deboer, big gains in year 1 at UW, and basically did the same at Fresno St. Chesney himself got JMU to the playoffs in year 2.
You can look back in time and find numerous other examples: Top coaches make an impact right away that can be seen and felt both inside and outside the program. It either works or it doesn't.
To paraphrase a former Bruin linebacker, 5-7 tells people "New coach. Same sorry ass UCLA".