Fisch - A win today at Wisconsin probably ensures an 8-win regular season at a minimum with a good shot at 9. Won 6 last year. In Year 2 now. "Reach".
Golesh - Great chance at a 9-win season and a chance at 10. Huge game against Navy next week. Won 6 last year. In Year 3 now. "Target".
Lewis - Big conference game at Hawaii tonight. Win that and he has a good shot at a 10-win season. Won 3 games last year. In Year 2 now. "Safety".
Energy/hunger factors and price favor Golesh and Lewis. Immediate recruiting/transfers and fundraising aspects favor Fisch.
If the committee lands any of these three, they did their job IMO.
All are sitting head coaches with good reputations, wanted by other schools. All have significant connections to the Midwest/Big 10. All are considered to be good coaches on offense. All are considered to be good recruiters. All have experience turning around programs who had hit a low point. All are under age 50.
It's hard for me to think that the search would go below Lewis. Wisconsin (where he played) may have been a threat but they've said they're staying with Fickell. The transition from SDSU just seems so easy and it's hard to see him declining the job as UCLA would probably triple his current salary. The prominent programs with openings would likely not be interested in him. He has no history with the SEC.
None of these three are close to a guarantee, but I don't think anyone could say "UCLA f'd up again" if we hired any of them.
Some of the other names mentioned don't seem to align as well:
Morris: Texas guy, no connection to the Big 10. Will probably draw interest from SEC.
Sumrall: Southern guy, no connection to the Big 10. Will probably draw interest from SEC.
Dan Mullen: No connection to the Big 10, has kind of an abrasive way about him. May draw interest from SEC.
GJ Kinne: No connection to Big 10/Midwest, having a bad season.
Spencer Danielson: limited resume, no connection to Big 10/Midwest, and former Boise St. coaches (other than Petersen) have not done well outside of Boise. Kind of young.
Aranda: Just not doing well enough right now, and hasn't for a while. On the hot seat at Baylor. This is the one hire that would make me ill.